San Diego, CAL -- The political situation in the Philippines is getting worse with “Juetengate” and “Gloriagate” coming to the fore.

Early this week, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (PGMA) announced to the whole nation that it was her voice indeed in the infamous “Hello Garci” wiretapped tapes. With the admission, she asked for an apology for her “lapse of judgment” in calling an election official. The belated acknowledgement did not admit to any wrongdoing nor did she identify who the COMELEC official was.

The opposition and the masses in general, are not about to roll over and forget everything as they continue with their protests and unabated attacks on the president and her presidential family. Susan Roces, the widow of the late presidential aspirant Fernando Poe Jr. lambasted PGMA merely a day after her admission and demanded the president’s resignation. Roces called PGMA a “cheater, thief, and arrogant” and vowed to support any actions to force PGMA’s early departure. Roces, however, made it clear that she was not supporting snap elections or another people power. Nor was she keen on the prospect of a Noli de Castro presidency for she believes that the vice president is part of the conspiracy to cheat her husband.

Despite PGMA’s announcement that the First Gentlemen, Mike Arroyo will voluntarily leave the country and go in exile abroad, the opposition is not buying it. Congressman Francis Escudero, the opposition’s spokesperson opined that Mike Arroyo, who is suspected of being involved in many shady and illegal transactions involving government funds should not be allowed to leave since the issue at the moment is PGMA and not her husband.

Predictably, Malacañang dismisses the impending mass actions as mere noises, tempest from the pot and not worthy of her getting concerned over it. The usual call for obeying the “rule of law” is often mentioned. But she is visibly concerned and she should be. The political waters of the Philippines are rising in calibrated rhythms to the drumbeat of dissent from all quarters. Yes, noises – noises that are getting louder by the day as the day of reckoning nears. GMA may have survived earlier attempts to unseat her, but her term may not survive past 2005. Why so soon and why with such viciousness?

Failed expectations, “Karma talaga”

In the beginning, La Gloria before her exelcis was not really the number one choice of the elite a.k.a. the ‘civil society’. Her trademark indecisiveness then was too obvious to ignore. That is why despite her popularity, she never landed in any presidential ticket. Tabog daw and not a presidential timber.

Remember that in year 2000 when the call for Estrada to step down was mounting, Arroyo for the most part stayed quiet and eventually withdrew her support but was reluctant to openly call for Estrada’s resignation or lead the people to his removal from power. Though she resigned her Cabinet post as secretary of social welfare in protest of Estrada’s alleged corrupt practices, Arroyo did not take an open stance. It was the ‘civil society’ coalition led by COPA who got the ball rolling. But COPA and the rest of them had a problem because by Constitutional succession, PGMA was the ‘man’. Anything less would have been uncivilized, as NBA’s Charles Barkley would say. The world obviously would condemn any extra-judicial means such as kudeta or installing a junta as a means of removing a duly elected president, never mind a popular one. The prospect was just not acceptable then so they were stuck with PGMA. The ‘civil society’ figured that PGMA’s indecisiveness will cause her to falter and comes 2004, a new leader will emerge; and that after more than three years in office, GMA will be content with her good fortunes and not seek (and if she does, will not have the support of the elite) the Presidency again.

Well, of course they were wrong but remained quiet given the alternative presidency of Fernando Poe Jr. GMA sought reelections and as evidenced by the wiretapped tapes, cheated for a new mandate. GMA personally handpicked Senator Noli “Kabayan” de Castro of the Magandang Gabi Bayan fame to be her running mate. The move was a calculated one to balance the overwhelming popularity of FPJ. But looking more closely, the move was a clever one for her. GMA knew that she lacked a powerbase and that she was standing on shaky grounds. She needed insurance to stay in power and de Castro was one of them. Who would in their right mind stage a coup to elevate Kabayan to the presidency? Furthermore, with Kabayan in tow guaranteed the implicit support of the telecommunications giant ABS-CBN. That gambit, as matter of fact, paid handsomely during the 2004 elections as it trended the votes in favor of Arroyo!

To add to the ‘civil society’s’ kamalasan, GMA hit the political path to 2004 running and started building up a presidential kitty under the watchful and masterful eye and hands of the First Gentleman, Miguel ‘Mike’ Arroyo. Mike Arroyo used his Bicol roots to uproot every Arroyo he can find in Bicol. One of them, the Joker of them all landed as the Chairman of the Senate’s Blue Ribbon Committee. Another insurance for GMA and it has paid off handsomely (although the guy is not really handsome) stopping cold on their tracks several senate inquiries involving alleged shenanigans of the Arroyos. Mike A. apparently got his hands in every cookie jar oozing with money, fingering the PCSO contracts, PAGCOR, Public Highways, LRT and many others. The kitty has gotten so huge the whole town partied – including many mainstream media personalities. Jose Pidal was born. The rest is history as Arroyo literally bankrupted the government with her massive elections spending.

So when a Bicolana jueteng operator named Sandra Cam pointed the accusing fingers to the presidential son Mickey Arroyo and uncle Congressman Iggy Arroyo (Mike’s brother) and blew the whistle regarding jueteng payolas and tried to pick a fight with the president about big sums of money; and when Sammy Ong, former deputy NBI chief surfaced with the “mother of all tapes” implicating the highest office of the land, the whole government apparatus – Justice Department, PNP, NBI, Ombudsman, Supreme Court were let lose to intimidate, discredit and arrest them for “inciting to sedition”. That’s how powerful she has become and desperate as the crescendo of daily protest escalates.

Dissatisfaction in office for only over a year, Arroyo has desperately attempted to appease her critics. Since day 1, Philippine politics have increasingly revolved around talk of coups. The once poor-girl from Lubao now appears unlikely to serve to the end of her term, which expires in the year 2010. After a year in office on her second term, Arroyo has been the object of several protest marches by thousands of protesters in the second quarter. A debate over “juetengate” and “Gloriagate”, worsening economy, the impending eVAT and her stagnated land reform have sparked growing opposition. Most potent is the charge that Arroyo has cheated in the last election with the help of the COMELEC and that her administration has become the most corrupt government in Asia and the number two in the world.

A broad-based whispering campaign that has increasingly become vocal over the past two months has begun to threaten Arroyo – from all directions. Bayan and other leftist organizations have joined in and vowed to stage mass actions against the Arroyo government. The PMAP led by a certain Ronald Lumbao, an Erap diehard vowed to join the fray as well. His group was the one involved in the May 1 uprising in 2001. Are the just recently released Oakwood mutineers could be lurking in the midst?

Early this month, the military charged that the political opposition was plotting to destabilize the Arroyo administration with numerous suspects. On top of their list of would-be ‘coup plotters’ is their favorite whipping boy, Sen. Ping Lacson followed by the usual suspects: Gringo Honasan and the RAMboys. Other military personalities – retired generals like Abat, Robles, et al – no longer RAMboys but RANguna or GURANGS were also included. Well, the plot thickens as the ISAFP Doble Vidal – the alleged source of the wiretapped tape, made a double take and accused Sammy Ong of kidnapping him and held him against his will. Sgt. Doble apparently arrived at the seminary where Ong would later be holed up, three hours earlier with a lady friend. The NBI and Justice Dept point to Estrada as the “brains” – now that’s a misnomer – Estarada with the “brains?” Estrada and the usual suspects are vehemently denying the much-publicized destabilization moves and merely exercising their freedom of speech. Sino ba talaga?

But Arroyo’s largest problem is rooted in the backlash against her perceived cheating in the last presidential elections. Caught in the tape that clearly spell out how PGMA and COMELEC Commissioner Garcillano cheated FPJ in Mindanao and the province of Cebu and incriminating evidence that NAMFREL – a supposed impartial watched dog connived with this COMLEC official to rig the vote in favor of PGMA.

Uneasiness of the political opposition.

Many are probably wondering why the political opposition is so perturbed and throwing just about everything that they could get a hold of figuratively and literally, at the present administration? Quite simply put, much is at stake for them.

For starters, Kabayan de Castro is the heir apparent of the throne. With the willingness of ABS-CBN, Philippine Daily Inquirer, and the Philippine Star along with the Makati Business Club and General Abat’s call for a military junta to pressure PGMA indicate that former president Ramos is again at play but this time to prop-up the vice president as the constitutional successor with the civil society in tow.

Pangalawa, Senator Lacson has stepped up to the plate with the launching of “Be not Afraid” – a copycat of the late Pope John Paul call in Poland that eventually toppled the communist government. Roces knows too well that Lacson was part of the reason PGMA is in Malacanang. So she obviously would not want Lacson to benefit from his “sins.”

Three, former Senator Legarda so suddenly found the cash to make her poll protest go forward. She’s obviously casting a moist eye in the presidency should both Arroyo and de Castro are removed for cheating. Roces made it clear that she does not want another nanay in Malacanang – obviously in repudiation of Legarda.

Four, a premature launching of an impeachment complaint that would exonerate Arroyo has already been filed. PGMA’s allies enjoy the tyranny of numbers in Congress so the move is a no-brainer – a moro-moro. Senator Drilon already said that the president did not commit any illegal acts by calling the election official – the guy who will sit as the presiding judge in the event Arroyo is impeached in the lower house.

And, the increasing call for a snap election by Raul Roco and Nene Pimentel – both possible presidential candidates could mean another let down for the opposition
So increasingly, PGMA is being tarred with the very scandals and accusations that brought down the Estrada presidency.

When Arroyo’s presidency began in early 2001, the stability of her regime rested on three things: popular support from a broad-based coalition that included the Left, the center and the loyalty of the Philippine armed forces.

GMA has already lost the Center, the Left, and some on the Right. It has also been clear for some time now that retaining the military’s backing depends on Arroyo’s ability to stay popular and to keep the armed forces happy by dispensing promotions and higher salaries and allowances; coddling them when they misbehave or displays their incompetence gaya ng kapalpakan sa Mindanao. If she cannot do these things, the military’s loyalty will likely implode. The opposition knows it well. So, it is not surprising that retired Col. Gringo Honasan continues to make the rounds of various military camps in Manila and in the provinces particularly in Mindanao where 70% of the Philippine Armed Forces are deployed.

This process is already evolving.

After a year in power, the opposition is very much aware that the allegations imagined or real, are putting a big dent on the Arroyo presidency. Already, she has already lost public support and has reached rock bottom in every polls taken. More than half of likely voters now disapprove of Arroyo saying they have lost patience with her, and that she really does not have what you can call hardcore support, according to recent polls. These numbers will get worse for Arroyo as the economic slump deepens in the coming months and allegations of corruption involving the highest office in the land continue to surface. As a matter of fact, the start of the Senate inquiry into the “Gloriagate” will be the impetus that can unravel the Arroyo presidency.

Deja Vu

Cause-oriented groups from Manila and other parts of the country who are GMA’s harshest critics will converge at a highly visible public ceremony in Manila this week to dramatize their dissatisfaction with the current dispensation. They will be linking arms with two of GMA’s fiercest critics - Linda Montayre (PCA) and Teddy Casiño (Bayan).

This broad coalition appears to be setting the stage for a popular outcry against Arroyo. With the right support and good luck, this coalition can turn the public against the president and as importantly the president’s political party, which has a majority of seats in the national legislature. If the president and his supporters are sufficiently smeared as corrupt and far-removed from the masses, Eduardo Cojuangco’s political party, NPC, could deliver the coup de grace at the Lower House where its members hold the majority and the joke of the impeachment case could be on Arroyo. Under the country’s constitution, the president can be declared unfit for office by just two-thirds of the legislators.

There is another and more direct route. The opposition can simply turn popular force loose against Arroyo and – following the model of the People Power revolution in 1986 and 2001– force the president from office and declare a revolutionary government. But this hinges on the military’s willingness which is clearly a distinct possibility. As Arroyo becomes more erratic and isolated in the coming months, the military’s fidelity to the president and the country will be challenged. Arroyo will lose in the balance, and the military will again likely be the kingmaker for whoever steps in to fill the presidential void.

Eventually younger more idealistic elements of the military will rebel against the president, but Arroyo and the cabal of generals – active and retire – in her administration will not go without a fight, and casualties are likely. Nevertheless the military, political and civilian leaders who support a coup would likely seek to justify their action on the grounds that Arroyo debased the Office of the President and would try to appease the Bush administration by pledging new national elections as quickly as possible.

With such assurances, the U.S. government, which isn’t fond of Arroyo’s flip-flopping and chumminess with China, would not protest too loudly about her undemocratic removal, especially if the United States interests are protected.